Tory MEPs could be more powerful than ever and should be ignored by lobbyists ‘at their peril’, argues ComRes exec

European parliament

That is the warning from Dan Hamilton, who from 2004 to 2008 was an aide to Nirj Deva, Conservative MEP for South East England and the European People’s Party (EPP)-European Democrats (ED).
Hamilton, who now works as European research analyst for ComRes in London and Brussels, argues in an article published this week that the Conservatives in the European Parliament potentially hold a stronger position than at any point during their 17-year association with the EPP.
The British Conservatives – who have 26 MEPs - are now lead members of the newly formed European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECRG). The Tories’ establishment of the group has been controversial, with the party facing criticism that their new political partners are unsuitable bedfellows and that the party will become isolated in Europe.
But in a paper titled ‘The European Conservative and Reformists in the next European Parliament’, Hamilton argues that public affairs professionals should pay more attention than ever to Tory MEPs and that they could well ‘punch above their weight’.
*** Click on the ‘PAN TV’ link on the left of this page to watch a short video-clip recorded for Public Affairs News TV by Hamilton, and read his article in full below.

The European Conservative and Reformists in the next European Parliament, by Daniel Hamilton

On 14 July the British Conservative Party’s departure from the dominant European People’s Party (EPP) grouping in the European Parliament was complete. After years of indecisiveness, the 17-year alliance with the EPP ceased, with the party taking the lead in the newly-formed European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECRG). 
The suitability of the Conservative Party’s partners in this venture has been a matter of furious debate with many broadsheet commentators disingenuously presenting their new allies as a collection of Slavic ne'er do wells.
The Conservatives have, for their part, been keen to stress that half of their partners sit in government and there can be little doubt that those parties who have subscribed to the ECRG charter share their commitment to deregulation, Atlanticism and the free market.

Pro-business agenda
The Czech ODS and Polish Law and Justice (PiS) parties, for example, shared the Conservatives’ pro-business approach to the REACH chemicals directive for 93.8 per cent and 87.7 per cent of the time, respectively, in the last session. On the issue of the Services Directive - a significant step towards enhancing cross-border competition policy that was steered through the European Parliament by Tory MEP Malcolm Harbour - the ODS and PiS shared the party’s liberalising position 88.2 per cent and 78.5 per cent of the time, respectively.
Other partners such as the Latvian Fatherland and Freedom party describe their economic outlook as ‘modelled on Margaret Thatcher's’, while Hungarian Democratic Forum’s MEP Lajos Bokros was responsible for the austerity measures which many credit with salvaging his country’s economy in the mid-1990s.
Suitability of the party’s allies aside, if one approaches decision-making in the European Parliament as a simple numbers game, one could conclude that the British Conservatives had made a terrible mistake in abandoning the EPP. 
Public affairs professionals used to dealing solely with the rightist and leftist ‘cartels’ in the Parliament – the EPP and (newly renamed) Party of Socialists and Democrats – could be forgiven for dismissing the Conservative Party as an irrelevance.
The reality of decision-making in the European Parliament is, however, significantly different. 

‘Potential to be different’
As seasoned parliament-watchers will know, many of the Parliament’s more important votes – such as to amend or reject the common position of the Council of Ministers – are taken on the basis of an absolute majority, requiring the support of 369 of the chamber’s 736 MEPs in order to become law. 
Following the accession of Romania and Bulgaria to EU membership in 2007, the combined strength of the EPP and Alliance of the Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) in the 2004-2009 session of Parliament took the liberalising ‘centre-right’ coalition in the Parliament to 388 seats out of 782 – six seats shy of an ‘absolute majority’.
In reality, the high level of parliamentary absenteeism that still sadly pervades in the European Parliament has required numerous uncomfortable compromises to be made between the EPP and Socialist group in order to pass legislation. As such, the efforts of PA professionals representing businesses and trade associations to advance the case of the internal market and deregulation were often frustrated by the Parliament’s seemingly never-ending state of ideological confusion.
Having always operated on a ‘coalition’ basis, the 2009- to-2014 session has the potential to be different – potentially providing the Parliament with its first genuine centre-right ‘government’.
Whether or not this will happen depends upon the will of the ECRG. As illustrated below, the ECRG has the power to either grant or deny the EPP and ALDE groups an absolute majority of 369 in closely-contested votes.
• EPP (264),

plus ECRG (55) = 301
The early signs of a cohesive ‘centre right’ coalition between the EPP, ALDE and ECRG are evident.

ECRG members’ votes ‘crucial’
Despite the protestations of outgoing European Parliament President and former EPP floor leader Hans-Gert Pöttering that the Conservatives would find themselves marginalised on the ‘fringes of European politics’ if they were to leave the EPP, the ECRG appears likely to provide the crucial votes necessary for the EPP to secure the speedy-confirmation of José Manuel Barroso’s second term as European Commission President.
Concerted ECRG support for the diminished, yet not entirely toothless, Socialist, Green and Communist alliance’s effort to remove Barroso from office would likely doom his appointment. 
It will be curious to see, in light of the ECRG’s expected assent to the re-nomination of Barosso, which parliamentary concessions the stronger EPP group will offer. Looking at past examples of coalition-building in the European Parliament, one could envisage the ECRG being handsomely rewarded in terms of positions of parliamentary influence and legislative concessions.
The 1999 and 2004 session of the European Parliament suggested that broad left and right coalitions could be formed in order to influence the outcomes of any particular vote. On the ‘right’, the federalist European People’s Party and Union for Europe of Nations groups, when joined by the Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ELDR) – the fore-runner to the current ALDE group - were able to reach 50.1 per cent of the vote. On the ‘left’, the Party of the European Socialists, Greens and Communist groups were, when joined by the ELDR on any particular vote, boosted to 51 per cent of the vote.
As such, this placed the ELDR in a crucial position of influence in the Parliament – and one they used to punch significantly above their weight throughout the session, securing the influential Presidency of the chamber and the chairmanship of the Committee on Justice and Home Affairs.

Punching above its weight
The ELDR’s position in the 1999 to 2004 session was not, however, a one-off.
For the most noticeable example of a smaller group punching above its weight one only needs look at the European Democratic Group’s position in the 1984 to 1989 session. As a result of the aforementioned coalition building process in the Parliament, the 50-strong group comprised chiefly of British, Swedish and Danish Conservatives was able to use its leverage in order to catapult Henry Plumb to the Presidency of the chamber - the first and only time a British MEP has held the position.
While it is beyond the realms of possibility during this current parliament term, one cannot dismiss the chances of the Conservatives once again using their leverage to secure the Presidency of the Parliament in years to come.
Parliamentary positions aside, the Conservative Party will seek to make its influence most powerfully felt in influencing the outcome of legislation passed in plenary session. Faced with the prospect of their legislation failing in plenary and thus handing parliamentary victories to the Socialist group, EPP and ALDE MEPs will be forced to yield to the demands of ECRG members.
The ECRG - which comprises the most dogged pro-liberalisation delegations in the Brussels - will be looking for early concessions from the EPP and ALDE group on budgetary control, internal market, environmental and Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform legislation. 
From a public affairs perspective, the British Conservatives are arguably in a stronger position than at any point during their seventeen-year association with the EPP. Ignore them at your peril.

17th July 2009 by PAN staff